We don't reach Earth and, therefore, there are entrepreneurs and agencies thinking about ways to take human beings to Mars. According to...
We don't reach Earth and, therefore, there are entrepreneurs and agencies thinking about ways to take human beings to Mars. According to a new study, not only is there a number of people considered sustainable for creating a colony, but there are other elements to take into consideration when selecting them.A new study carried out by a team of researchers from the United States of America concluded that to sustain a colony long enough to establish a sustainable presence on Mars, only 22 people would be needed.
The team used models and simulations to determine the minimum starting population size for a successful and prosperous Mars colony. If the colony is smaller than what is considered ideal, the colonization of the red planet could be a failure.
In addition to the number of people, researchers discovered that the human colony on Mars must have the right mix of personality types . This is to ensure that those selected are able to work together for a long time, in a very isolated environment. Otherwise, colonization may not go well.
In addition to technical and engineering challenges, colonizers will also face psychological and human behavioral challenges.
Our goal is to better understand the behavioral and psychological interactions of those selected through an agent-based modeling approach ( ABM simulation ).
This agent-based modeling is a technique used in economic or health research. Simply put, they are computer simulations designed to study the interactions of autonomous "agents" with decision-making power in a system. Although they typically focus on people, the system can also include objects, location and the passage of time.
The team included four personality types in their modeling :
Pleasant , with low competitiveness, low aggressiveness and low fixation on routine;
Social , moderately competitive, competitive in social interactions and require social interaction, but also have low fixation in routine;
Reactive , moderately competitive, competitive in social interaction and fixed in routine;
Neurotic , highly competitive, socially aggressive, highly fixated on routine and have problems with boredom.
Each agent was also assigned skills in two categories: management and engineering . Other factors, such as resource availability , interpersonal relationships and task alignment , were also taken into account.
How did you realize that it takes 22 people to colonize Mars?
The team studied human incursions into isolated environments under high stress , such as Antarctica, submarines and the International Space Station, to better understand the challenges and stressors.
He then performed five runs of his model over a period of 28 years, varying the population size from 10 to 170 in increments of 10 individuals, then testing even smaller initial populations.
Since there are critical tasks that must be constantly performed - such as air, water and food production, waste removal and accident recovery - a population size of 10 has been set as the absolute minimum for a stable colony. . It should be noted that equal numbers of each personality type were included in each initial set.
After 28 years, the minimum initial population capable of supporting a population of more than 10 individuals was 22 people. However, personality type played a significant role. After all, "the Agreeable personality type was the only one to survive the entire duration of the model runs."
These findings, which have not yet been peer-reviewed, were presented in detail in a paper published on arXiv .
